How Great is the Military Threat Posed by China?

        To the surprise of most Americans, the world’s largest military belongs to neither the United States nor Russia. That distinction rests with China.  Beijing’s armed might is not restricted strictly to numbers.  Over the past decade, it has made rapid strides in quality, as well. According to the recently released U.S. Department of Defense report on the Chinese military,

“The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) [PLA is the general term for all Chinese armed forces]is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fighting and winning short-duration, high-intensity conflicts along its periphery against high-tech adversaries – an approach that China refers to as preparing for “local wars under conditions of informatization.” The pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years, fueled by acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, and far-reaching organizational and doctrinal reforms of the armed forces. China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance remains limited, but its armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive military technologies, including those for anti-access/area-denial, as well as for nuclear, space, and cyber warfare, that are changing regional military balances and that have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region.”

In fact, Beijing’s military may be behind one of the greatest espionage assaults ever recorded.  The computers of American and other governments have been repeatedly subjected to infiltration.  Further evidence of China’s rapidly developing capabilities can be seen in its successful destruction of a satellite in space, giving the nation a true ASAT (anti satellite) capability.

This rapid construction of a vast and powerful 21^st century military has been financed by an unprecedented leap in funding. According to published reports, Beijing will spend twice as much in 2009 for its armed forces as it did just four years ago, a percentage increase that wasn’t matched by either the USA or the USSR even at the height of the cold war. The escalation of China’s military budget is not a recent development. For two decades, Beijing has had double-digit percentage increases in its military spending, even surpassing its impressive internal economic growth. Even the large sums reported may not be the whole story. Most analysts believe that significant unreported funds have been committed for military spending.

The results of this quantum leap in spending and modernization has seen increased investment in domestic military production and foreign acquisitions.  It  has accelerated modernization in each military service, as evidenced by:

·       New generations of survivable nuclear armed ballistic missiles, both land- and sea-based;

·       Domestic production of advanced short- and medium-range conventionally armed ballistic missiles,  and associated weaponry;

·       Advanced Russian aircraft and precision weaponry for the air and naval air forces;

·       Domestic development of the multi-role F-10 fighter aircraft;

·       Advanced Russian and domestic versions of modern guided-missile destroyers (DDGs), frigates, and amphibious landing craft;

·       Modern, long-range, and mobile air defense systems; and,

·       Programs to increase professionalism and quality of life for military personnel.

China’s geostrategic strength is tempered by the presence of several powerful nations on its periphery.  While currently enjoying warm relations with northern neighbor Russia, the historical antagonism between the two powers is not totally forgotten.  The world’s most populous democracy, India, rests on Beijing’s southern border.  That nation is also developing an advanced military capability and has conflicting interests with China.  Vietnam has had clashes with China. And then there is Japan.  While Japan still has its peace constitution, the island nation has formidable naval forces and could rapidly develop further military power if threatened. Additionally, internal fissures with the autonomous regions of Tibet and Xinjiang Uygur continue to cause headaches to the Beijing leadership.

Conclusion

China clearly has the potential capability to be the most formidable foe the United States has ever faced, and has goals that are diametrically opposed to American interests.   There are worrisome developments in its increasingly cooperative relations with Russia, and its continued emphasis on retaking Taiwan.  The exceptionally belligerent attitude of its naval forces towards American naval vessels is a major concern.  Chinese submarines and missiles have clearly compromised the safety of U.S. Carrier groups and other naval ships in international waters. Should American defense spending decline, Asian nations will be motivated to tilt towards China’s will. However, should U.S. resolve and military capability remain strong, China will have far less motivation to engage in rash or aggressive action.